Anul 1989-an revolutionar european
In istoria Europei si a intregii lumi, memorabilul an 1989 reprezinta un moment istoric de cotitura, pe parcursul caruia regimurile totalitare din Europa Centrala s-au prabusit in lant, intr-un ritm accelarat, iar intre 25 dec 1989, ziua executiei sotilor Ceausescu si 25 dec 1991 ziua dezmembrarii URSS s-au produs schimbari de neinmaginat cu un an sau doi inainte.
Cauzele marii schimbari democratice, antitotalitare, desfasurate cu succes in spatiul geopolitic cunoscut, precum si urmarile acesteia pe termen mediu sau lung sunt inca departe de a fi elucidate. Se pare ca lumea occidentala si SUA inca nu s-au dezmetiit in fata unor realitati la care nici nu visa: disparitia Tratatului de la Varsovia, divolvarea CAER, disparitia dipozitivului militar rusesc din Germania si Europa Centrala si retragerea acestuia cu peste 1500 km la est, disparitia marii URSS si dezmembrarea Armatei Rosii si unificarea Germaniei.
Scolile de analiza si prognoza politica din intreaga lume si a celei americane patronate de CIA cu toata imensitatea de forte umane, finanaciare si tehnologice avute la dispozitie nu au reusit sa anticipeze schimbarile de esenta ale anilor 1990. Epicentrul marilor evenimente, care a dus la caderea comunismului in Europa a fost Moscova, comunismul nascindu-se (1917) si murind la Moscova(1991)., tirind dupa sine si regimurile politice pe care le-a cultivat si intretinut in statele din Europa Centrala. Astfel s-a deschis calea abandonarii sistemului economiei centralizate si a totalitarismului si trecerea la un nou sistem economic-cel al economiei sociale de piata, precum si trecerea la un nou sistem politic de guvernare democratic, pluripartitist.
Marile schimbari ale sfirsitului de secolXX concertate de Mihail Gorbaciov au realizat o surprindere politica totala pentru SUA si aliatii lor din NATO, efectele acesteia putind sa dureze chiar si secole( istorii si analistii se mai ocupa inca de Revolutia americana de la 1776, Revolutia franceza din 1789-1794, Revolutiile din Europa de la 1848, Revolutia bolsevica din 1917, Revolutia chineza din 1949, fiind subiecte de dezbateri si surse de noi interpretari).
Esenta SURPRINDERII POLITICE a lumii occidentale consta in disparitia “pericolului comunist” care a constituit platforma politica fundamentala a SUA pe plan extern cit si “liantul” prin care americanii au realizat alinierea si concentrarea fortelor lumii capitaliste impotriva URSS.
Cauza fundamentala, dar nu unica a procesului revolutionar al anului 1989, ce a produs caderea comunimului a fost de natura economica, economiile statelor foste comuniste, desi unele avansate(Cehoslovacia, RDG, Ungaria), esuind in raporturile lor cu standardele economice din statele cele mai avansate ale lumii precum Franta, Germania, Suedia, SUA, Marea Britanie, deoarece aveau la baza vointa politica a factorilor de conducere si nu criteriile firesti ale pietei(cererea si oferta) interne si internationale.
Analistii americani apreciaza ca Revolutia antitotalitara din Europa Centrala, din punct de vedere al duratei s-a desfasurat astfel: zece ani in Polonia; zece luni in Ungaria; zece saptamini in Cehoslovacia; zece zile in RDG; si zece ore in Romnia –cu acelasi rezultat final: abandonarea sistemului economiei centralizate, distrugerea monopolului puterii politice a Partidelor Coministe, trecerea la sistemul economiei de piata si la democratia pluralista, iesirea de sub hegemonia sovietica (mai putin Romania, care realizase acest lucru in 1964), orientarea spre Europa occidentala si a valorilor sale.
Revolutiile democratice, antitotalitare din statele Europei Centrale si de Est s-au deosebit fundamental fata de tot ceea ce acumulase omenirea in materie de miscari revolutionare pina atunci, dovedindu-se a fi unice in istorie si prin aceea ca nu si-au propus aducerea pe scena lumii a unui nou proiect social, ca in cazul revolutiilor franceze si ruse.
Tarile in care s-au produs aceste revolutii isi propun in cadrul perioadei de tranzitie sa realizeze ceea ce deja exista in Europa de Vest, in SUA si Canada, adica o societate democratica, bazata pe o economie de piata moderna, un stat de drept, in care omul sa se poata bucura de toate drepturile la nivelul standardelor de civilizatie ale sec XX si XXI. Aceasta opera sociala dificila are 3 surse: valorile democratiei ocidentale, valorile nationale precomuniste si valorile autentice rezultate din experienta epocii socialismului(dreptul la un loc de munca, la o casa, la protectie sociala, la o echitabila distribuire a avutiei nationale).
Ceea ce leaga natiunile din centrul si estul Europei –experienta lor istorica comuna, conexiunile si influientele lor reciproce sunt mult mai puternice, mai numeroase si mai durabile, mai ales prin prisma integrarii europene, decit ceea ce le separa.
Evenimentele revolutionare din anul 1989 nu pot fi intelese decit printr-o abordare globala, in unitatea lor cauzala si prin influientare reciproca.
Revolutia romana din decembrie 1989 este parte integranta a acestui process European.
Colonel Viorel Ciobanu
Presedinte al Filialei judetene Teleorman
a cadrelor militare in rezerva si retragere
duminică, 22 noiembrie 2009
1989 – European revolutionary year
1989 – European revolutionary year
For the history of Europe and that of the entire world, the memorable year of 1989 represents an historical turning point, during which the totalitarian regimes of Central Europe crashed in a chain reaction, and between December 25th 1989, the day of execution for the Ceausescu couple, and December 25th 1991, the day the USSR fell, changes took place, unimaginable one or two years before.
The reasons for the great anti-totalitarian, democratic shift, successfully unfolded in the known geopolitical space, as well as the medium and long term consequences that followed, are far from being illuminated. It seems that the US and the western world still haven’t sobered up from the disappearance of the Warsaw treaty, the dissolution of CMEA the disappearance of the Soviet armed forces from Germany and Central Europe and their retreat 1500 km east, the dissolution of the USSR, the disbandment of the Red Army and the unification of Germany.
The schools of political analysis and forecasting all over the world, including that of the US, directed by the CIA, with the vast human, financial and technological resources at their disposal, couldn’t anticipate the essential changes of the 90’s. The heart of the great events, that lead to the downfall of communism in Europe, was Moscow; as such communism being born (1917) and having died here (1991), dragging behind all the political regimes that it cultivated and maintained in the countries of Central Europe. Therefore the path was open for abandoning the system of planned economy, totalitarianism and adopting a new economical system – that of market economy as well as adopting a new democratic political governing system.
The great changes of the 20th century conducted by Mikhail Gorbachev lead on to a complete political astonishment from the US and that of it’s NATO allies – the effects of which could last for centuries (historians and analysts are steal dealing with the American Revolution of 1776 the French Revolution of 1789-1794, the European Revolutions of 1848, the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, the Chinese Revolution of 1949 – all these offering new topics for debates and new interpretations).
The essence of THE POLITICAL ASTONISHMENT of the western world consists of the elimination of the “communist threat” which constructed the main American external policy as well as the “binding agent” by which the US rallied and united the capitalist forces of the world against the USSR.
The fundamental cause of the 1989 revolutionary process was of economic nature. The economies of the former communist countries, though some advanced (Czechoslovakia, GDR, Hungary), have failed in contrast with economic standards of the more advanced nations of the world such as France, Germany, Sweden, the USA, the United Kingdom, because they were based on the political will of the leadership factors, and not on the natural criteria of the internal and international market (supply and demand).
American analysts evaluate that from the duration point of view, the anti-totalitarian Revolution of Central Europe unfolded as such: ten years in Poland, ten months in Hungary, ten weeks in Czechoslovakia, ten days in GDR and ten hours in Romania – all with the same final result: the abandoning of the planned economical system, the destruction of the monopoly of political power held by the Communist Parties, adopting market economy and pluralist democracy, the emergence from under the Soviet hegemony (minus Romania, who had accomplished this in 1964) and the orientation towards Western Europe and its values.
The democratic, anti-totalitarian revolutions of Central and Eastern Europe are different from what mankind had accumulated until then concerning revolutionary movements, proving themselves to be unique in history because they did not propose to bring a new social project in the world, like in the case of the Russian and French revolutions.
The countries in which these revolutions occurred proposed that during a period of transition they would accomplish what was already in Western Europe, the United States and Canada – that being a democratic society, based on a modern market economy in which man could enjoy his rights at the modern standards of civilization of the 20th and 21st centuries. This difficult social work has three sources: the values of western democracy, the national pre-communist values and the authentic values accumulated from the experience of the communist era (the right for a job, social protection, and a equitable distribution of the national wealth).
That which ties the nations of Central and Eastern Europe – their common historical experience, their mutual influences and connections, are far more powerful, more numerous and more durable than that which separates them.
The revolutionary events of the year 1989 can only be understood by a global approach because of their causal unity and mutual influence.
The Romanian Revolution of 1989 is an integral part of this European process.
Colonel Viorel Ciobanu
President of the Teleorman County Organization
For military armed forces in reserve
For the history of Europe and that of the entire world, the memorable year of 1989 represents an historical turning point, during which the totalitarian regimes of Central Europe crashed in a chain reaction, and between December 25th 1989, the day of execution for the Ceausescu couple, and December 25th 1991, the day the USSR fell, changes took place, unimaginable one or two years before.
The reasons for the great anti-totalitarian, democratic shift, successfully unfolded in the known geopolitical space, as well as the medium and long term consequences that followed, are far from being illuminated. It seems that the US and the western world still haven’t sobered up from the disappearance of the Warsaw treaty, the dissolution of CMEA the disappearance of the Soviet armed forces from Germany and Central Europe and their retreat 1500 km east, the dissolution of the USSR, the disbandment of the Red Army and the unification of Germany.
The schools of political analysis and forecasting all over the world, including that of the US, directed by the CIA, with the vast human, financial and technological resources at their disposal, couldn’t anticipate the essential changes of the 90’s. The heart of the great events, that lead to the downfall of communism in Europe, was Moscow; as such communism being born (1917) and having died here (1991), dragging behind all the political regimes that it cultivated and maintained in the countries of Central Europe. Therefore the path was open for abandoning the system of planned economy, totalitarianism and adopting a new economical system – that of market economy as well as adopting a new democratic political governing system.
The great changes of the 20th century conducted by Mikhail Gorbachev lead on to a complete political astonishment from the US and that of it’s NATO allies – the effects of which could last for centuries (historians and analysts are steal dealing with the American Revolution of 1776 the French Revolution of 1789-1794, the European Revolutions of 1848, the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, the Chinese Revolution of 1949 – all these offering new topics for debates and new interpretations).
The essence of THE POLITICAL ASTONISHMENT of the western world consists of the elimination of the “communist threat” which constructed the main American external policy as well as the “binding agent” by which the US rallied and united the capitalist forces of the world against the USSR.
The fundamental cause of the 1989 revolutionary process was of economic nature. The economies of the former communist countries, though some advanced (Czechoslovakia, GDR, Hungary), have failed in contrast with economic standards of the more advanced nations of the world such as France, Germany, Sweden, the USA, the United Kingdom, because they were based on the political will of the leadership factors, and not on the natural criteria of the internal and international market (supply and demand).
American analysts evaluate that from the duration point of view, the anti-totalitarian Revolution of Central Europe unfolded as such: ten years in Poland, ten months in Hungary, ten weeks in Czechoslovakia, ten days in GDR and ten hours in Romania – all with the same final result: the abandoning of the planned economical system, the destruction of the monopoly of political power held by the Communist Parties, adopting market economy and pluralist democracy, the emergence from under the Soviet hegemony (minus Romania, who had accomplished this in 1964) and the orientation towards Western Europe and its values.
The democratic, anti-totalitarian revolutions of Central and Eastern Europe are different from what mankind had accumulated until then concerning revolutionary movements, proving themselves to be unique in history because they did not propose to bring a new social project in the world, like in the case of the Russian and French revolutions.
The countries in which these revolutions occurred proposed that during a period of transition they would accomplish what was already in Western Europe, the United States and Canada – that being a democratic society, based on a modern market economy in which man could enjoy his rights at the modern standards of civilization of the 20th and 21st centuries. This difficult social work has three sources: the values of western democracy, the national pre-communist values and the authentic values accumulated from the experience of the communist era (the right for a job, social protection, and a equitable distribution of the national wealth).
That which ties the nations of Central and Eastern Europe – their common historical experience, their mutual influences and connections, are far more powerful, more numerous and more durable than that which separates them.
The revolutionary events of the year 1989 can only be understood by a global approach because of their causal unity and mutual influence.
The Romanian Revolution of 1989 is an integral part of this European process.
Colonel Viorel Ciobanu
President of the Teleorman County Organization
For military armed forces in reserve
luni, 2 noiembrie 2009
BIPOLARITATE-UNIPOLARITATE-MULTIPOLARITATE
BIPOLARITATE-UNIPOLARITATE-MULTIPOLARITATE
COL. R. VIOREL CIOBANU
Evolutia lumii de la inceputul acestui secol este marcata de competitia acerba pentru afirmarea si consolidarea a unor noi centre de putere(politica, economica, militara).
Mediul actual de securitate este caracterizat de urmatorii factori: globalizarea, integrarea europeana si euroatlantica, dorinta Rusiei de a redeveni un factor de decizie in problemele mondiale, afirmara tarilor asiatice in viata politica internationala.
Stabilitatea si securitatea mondiala sunt influientate de : fenomenul terorismului, proliferarea armelor de distrugere in masa, crima organizata precum si de efectele fenomenelor naturale ( incalzirea climei, lipsa apei potabile, cutremurele, inundatiile, epuizarea resurselor, evolutia demografica).
In acest context, actualul mediu de securitate are urmatoarele trasaturi: - trecerea de la bipolaritate (dominanta politicii mondiale de catre doua superputeri –SUA si fosta URSS) la unipolaritate (dominanata unei singure superputeri-SUA) , Statele Unite dovedind capacitate si posibilitati reale de implicare eficienta in gestionarea problemelor majore ale omenirii, astazi fiind unica superputere politica, economica, finanaciara si militara credibila si viabila;
- de la unipolaritate la multipolaritate prin afirmarea tot mai pregnanata a Uniunii Europene, ca factor de stabilitate si progres, dezvoltarea economica si militara accelerata a Chinei, Indiei si Japoniei, precum si ofensiva tot mai pregnanta diplomatica, economica, militara a Rusiei;
- aparitia si consolidarea a noi actori internationali nonstatali care se conduc dupa reguli si norme specifice, raportandu-se la alte valori decat cele nationale, tinzand sa controleze si gestioneze tehnologia ultraperformanta, economiile, finanatele, resursele energetice;
- noi tendinte in dezvoltarea si functionarea institutiilor si organizatiilor politice, economice si de securitate internationale
(trecerea de la functia de aparare colectiva la cea de securitate colectiva, initierea si afirmarea tendintelor de gestionare a crizelor pe considerente regionale, etc.);
- organizatiile de securitate ONU si OSCE incurajeaza atat preluarea de mandate pentru rezolvarea unor crize internationale de catre coalitii sau organizatii regionale cat si constituirea unor forte capabile sa indeplinesca astfel de misiuni.
Astazi SUA decide asupra marilor problerme ale omenirii, impunandu-si vointa prin politica “manusilor catifelate” sau a “pumnului de fier” asupra rivalilor, avand o pozitie absolut hegemonica in lume, cum nu s-a mai vazut de la caderea Imperiului Roman. Ponderea acesteia in actiunile militare este de peste 80%, iar tehnologia, armamentul si logistica folosite reprezinta capacitati militare atat de sofisticate si costisitoare, incat ceilalti aliati nu le pot avea inca, procesul de trecere de la bipolaritate la unipolaritate fiind astfel realizat.
Dar, daca impotriva terorismului si amenintarilor asimetrice SUA actioneaza in coalitie sau solitar, in competitia pentru resurse si piete de desfacere acest lucru devine mult mai dificil de realizat.
Elementul de referinta al puterii fiind factorul economic este de asteptat ca gruparea fortelor, constituirea de coalitii si aliante, aparitia de noi centre de putere in lume UE, JAPONIA, CHINA, INDIA, RUSIA – multipolaritatea- sa se faca in functie de capacitatile si interesele actorilor statali la noi forme organizationale, care vor avera drept mobil batalia pentru piete de desfacere si pentru resurse naturale.
Acest proces se preconizeaza a fi mai lung, mai dificil, si mai complex iar in urmatorii 20-25 de ani scenariile de constituire a multipolaritatii vor comporta transpuneri pe cat de inedite si imprevizibile, pe atat de radicale si cuprinzatoare
COL. R. VIOREL CIOBANU
Evolutia lumii de la inceputul acestui secol este marcata de competitia acerba pentru afirmarea si consolidarea a unor noi centre de putere(politica, economica, militara).
Mediul actual de securitate este caracterizat de urmatorii factori: globalizarea, integrarea europeana si euroatlantica, dorinta Rusiei de a redeveni un factor de decizie in problemele mondiale, afirmara tarilor asiatice in viata politica internationala.
Stabilitatea si securitatea mondiala sunt influientate de : fenomenul terorismului, proliferarea armelor de distrugere in masa, crima organizata precum si de efectele fenomenelor naturale ( incalzirea climei, lipsa apei potabile, cutremurele, inundatiile, epuizarea resurselor, evolutia demografica).
In acest context, actualul mediu de securitate are urmatoarele trasaturi: - trecerea de la bipolaritate (dominanta politicii mondiale de catre doua superputeri –SUA si fosta URSS) la unipolaritate (dominanata unei singure superputeri-SUA) , Statele Unite dovedind capacitate si posibilitati reale de implicare eficienta in gestionarea problemelor majore ale omenirii, astazi fiind unica superputere politica, economica, finanaciara si militara credibila si viabila;
- de la unipolaritate la multipolaritate prin afirmarea tot mai pregnanata a Uniunii Europene, ca factor de stabilitate si progres, dezvoltarea economica si militara accelerata a Chinei, Indiei si Japoniei, precum si ofensiva tot mai pregnanta diplomatica, economica, militara a Rusiei;
- aparitia si consolidarea a noi actori internationali nonstatali care se conduc dupa reguli si norme specifice, raportandu-se la alte valori decat cele nationale, tinzand sa controleze si gestioneze tehnologia ultraperformanta, economiile, finanatele, resursele energetice;
- noi tendinte in dezvoltarea si functionarea institutiilor si organizatiilor politice, economice si de securitate internationale
(trecerea de la functia de aparare colectiva la cea de securitate colectiva, initierea si afirmarea tendintelor de gestionare a crizelor pe considerente regionale, etc.);
- organizatiile de securitate ONU si OSCE incurajeaza atat preluarea de mandate pentru rezolvarea unor crize internationale de catre coalitii sau organizatii regionale cat si constituirea unor forte capabile sa indeplinesca astfel de misiuni.
Astazi SUA decide asupra marilor problerme ale omenirii, impunandu-si vointa prin politica “manusilor catifelate” sau a “pumnului de fier” asupra rivalilor, avand o pozitie absolut hegemonica in lume, cum nu s-a mai vazut de la caderea Imperiului Roman. Ponderea acesteia in actiunile militare este de peste 80%, iar tehnologia, armamentul si logistica folosite reprezinta capacitati militare atat de sofisticate si costisitoare, incat ceilalti aliati nu le pot avea inca, procesul de trecere de la bipolaritate la unipolaritate fiind astfel realizat.
Dar, daca impotriva terorismului si amenintarilor asimetrice SUA actioneaza in coalitie sau solitar, in competitia pentru resurse si piete de desfacere acest lucru devine mult mai dificil de realizat.
Elementul de referinta al puterii fiind factorul economic este de asteptat ca gruparea fortelor, constituirea de coalitii si aliante, aparitia de noi centre de putere in lume UE, JAPONIA, CHINA, INDIA, RUSIA – multipolaritatea- sa se faca in functie de capacitatile si interesele actorilor statali la noi forme organizationale, care vor avera drept mobil batalia pentru piete de desfacere si pentru resurse naturale.
Acest proces se preconizeaza a fi mai lung, mai dificil, si mai complex iar in urmatorii 20-25 de ani scenariile de constituire a multipolaritatii vor comporta transpuneri pe cat de inedite si imprevizibile, pe atat de radicale si cuprinzatoare
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